DOTHAN, Ala. – COVID-19 variants are becoming increasingly common in Alabama as vaccination rates decline.
So far existing vaccines are protective against all strains of mutations, but researchers say a vaccine-evading variant could arise anywhere at any time.
“If more mutations were to occur and variants were to come about that completely evade neutralizing antibodies, then that’s a big deal,” said Dr. Sixto Leal, a professor of medicine at UAB.
To monitor and learn about a virus and its evolution – or mutations – researchers use a process called genomic sequencing to decode the genes within the virus.
According to Dr. Leal, who helps sequence viral strains at UAB’s COVID-19 sequencing lab, the highly contagious UK variant makes up about half of all new COVID cases in Alabama, up from about one percent in January.
Other new mutations of the virus are appearing with greater frequency as well, although none are common enough to be named. So far none of the new variants appears to be spreading significantly.
“Mutations are part of the natural course of an illness,” said Dr. Spencer Fox, a researcher at UT Austin. Similar mutations are occurring throughout the country and the world, experts say.
“For much of the course of the pandemic, there was not too much evolutionary pressure on the virus to evolve. It wasn’t too advantageous to evolve because there wasn’t much immunity in the population.”
As more people get vaccinated, the virus must mutate to survive, said Dr. Leal.
“We’re seeing a greater percentage of these mutations that are known to be able to cause infection in individuals that have been vaccinated,” he said, adding that an increase in sequencing capabilities at the state level may also account for the identification of mutations.
“(Mutations) are something to keep an eye on, and if a particular variant does show evidence of spreading, then it becomes more of an interest and needs to be evaluated to determine whether or not it does have a transmission advantage,” said Duke University Surgeon Dr. David Montefiori.
Despite the fact that the vaccine may be spurring the growth of new mutations, overall, the more people get vaccinated, the less likely mutations are to spread, said Dr. Leal.
“Vaccination has done a lot to slow spread of COVID-19, and it continues to do so, but we need more people on board to get rid of this virus entirely.”
About 32 percent of Alabamians have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. In recent weeks, vaccination rates have shown a steady decline in the state.
Vaccination numbers dropped by about half since this time last month in Alabama, and the state continues to trail the nation in the percentage of population that has received a vaccine.
So far, existing vaccines are effective against COVID-19. That’s because antibodies developed through vaccination or through surviving COVID-19 are largely believed to be generally effective in preventing future infection, experts say.
Mutations similar to the ones being tracked in Alabama, also yet without names, have been identified in other parts of the country. Researchers are particularly interested in following mutations that may present a threat to vaccines. Of the new strains, some have similar characteristics to the South African variant, also identified in Alabama, which has been shown to be more resistant to vaccines.
“We’re hoping that nothing worse than the South African variants will emerge. The other variants are not as resistant as the South African variant,” said Montefiori.
The Pfizer vaccine is still 75 percent effective against the South African variant, compared to 95 percent efficacy with the original strain of the virus, he said.
“I think the important thing right now to do is to try and vaccinate as many people as possible,” said Dr. Fox. “The more we can get case counts down, the lower we can get transmission in the United States, the less risk of these variants emerging.”
